SJM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SJM - The J.M. Smucker Company
$116.49
-0.34 (-0.29%)
▼
5d:
+12.51%
30d:
+15.49%
90d:
+9.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 09, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SJM is 7.4% above its trading range ($108.48). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SJM is 7.4% above its trading range ($108.48). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$81.95
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SJM is currently trading at $116.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.52 to $108.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.5) compared to its historical average (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SJM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SJM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$97.52 -
$108.48
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
SJM is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($121.59)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.8% growth with 5.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.52 -
$108.48
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$99.42
Resistance Level
$115.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.48
Wall Street Target
$121.59
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.8% premium
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 12.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.25
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$130.39
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$137.96
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$116.23
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -10.8%)
$128.55
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: -10.8%)
$84.92
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: -10.8%)
$71.54
(-39%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 14, 2026 3:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SJM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced SJM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SJM price and gamma walls.
