HLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$304.95
-3.31 (-1.07%)
▼
5d:
+1.08%
30d:
+0.01%
90d:
+6.16%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
HLT is down 4.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $340 2026-04-17 with 760 OI. Call ratio: 74% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$411.48
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$255.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLT is currently trading at $304.95, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $295.41 to $309.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.6) is in line with its historical norms (31.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $309.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $309.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$295.41 -
$309.13
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($328.16)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$295.41 -
$309.13
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$290.67
Resistance Level
$309.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.59
Wall Street Target
$328.16
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-38.5%
Profit Margin
29.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.6 vs 31.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$303.64
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$299.08
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$294.60
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→31)
$308.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.6, Growth: 15.3%)
$472.60
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.3%)
$356.99
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 15.3%)
$303.44
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.11
Bull Case
$548.78
(+83%)
Analyst growth 70.5%, PE expands to 52.7
Base Case
$498.89
(+66%)
Market implied 70.5%, PE stable at 47.9
Bear Case
$198.95
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.6 to 31.0
Stabilization Target:
$322.97
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-23
Christopher J Nassetta
SELL
114289 shares
2026-02-17
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-06
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Advanced HLT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HLT price and gamma walls.
