HQY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HQY - HealthEquity, Inc
$82.17
-0.15 (-0.18%)
▼
5d:
-3.15%
30d:
-2.79%
90d:
+11.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
11d
Smart Money Accumulation
HQY is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $90 2026-06-18 with 372 OI. Call ratio: 79% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HQY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HQY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.03
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.33
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HQY is currently trading at $82.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.48 to $84.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 92.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HQY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $79.69, while resistance sits at $84.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $112.88 (+37.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HQY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $79.69, while resistance sits at $84.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $112.88 (+37.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$80.48 -
$84.47
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.4% below Wall St target ($112.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.48 -
$84.47
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.69
Resistance Level
$84.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.10
Wall Street Target
$112.88
(+37.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.4%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 19.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.03
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$77.95
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$75.93
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$82.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.8%)
$151.64
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 14.8%)
$124.34
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 14.8%)
$105.69
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.46
Bull Case
$166.55
(+103%)
Analyst growth 84.6%, PE expands to 36.7
Base Case
$151.41
(+84%)
Market implied 84.6%, PE stable at 33.4
Bear Case
$55.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 19.6
Stabilization Target:
$88.99
(+8.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HQY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Delano Ladd
SELL
1500 shares
2025-12-19
Elimelech Rosner
SELL
10959 shares
2025-12-18
Delano Ladd
SELL
1500 shares
2025-11-20
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HQY price and gamma walls.
