INNV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INNV - InnovAge Holding Corp. Common Stock
$5.55
-0.14 (-2.46%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INNV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 19.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INNV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 19.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.09
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.37
40.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INNV is currently trading at $5.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.36 to $5.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (34.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INNV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INNV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$5.36 -
$5.84
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.1% above Wall St target ($5.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.36 -
$5.84
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.76
(13.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.40
Resistance Level
$6.08
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.35
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(-12.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-87.8%
Profit Margin
-2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 34.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.12
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→35)
$7.89
(+39%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 47.6%)
$22.24
(+291%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 47.6%)
$18.30
(+222%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 47.6%)
$15.56
(+173%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 34.9
Stabilization Target:
$10.82
(+90.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+90.1%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INNV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced INNV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INNV price and gamma walls.
