KDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KDP - Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$26.45
0.22 (0.84%)
ā²
5d:
-0.38%
30d:
-12.65%
90d:
-5.87%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: KDP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: KDP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.04
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.97
5.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KDP is currently trading at $26.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.65 to $29.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (12.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $25.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KDP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.71 (+35.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $25.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KDP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.71 (+35.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$26.65 -
$29.58
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.0% below Wall St target ($35.71)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.65 -
$29.58
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.99
Resistance Level
$27.80
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.48
Wall Street Target
$35.71
(+35.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 12.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.94
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$23.52
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$22.18
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10ā13)
$26.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.8%)
$76.76
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 10.8%)
$35.98
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 10.8%)
$30.59
(+16%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.53
Bull Case
$48.26
(+82%)
Analyst growth 65.0%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$43.88
(+65%)
Market implied 65.0%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$18.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 12.5
Stabilization Target:
$31.56
(+19.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Angela A Stephens
SELL
10000 shares
2025-12-12
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-11-10
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