LI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LI - Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares
$12.02
-0.21 (-1.72%)
▼
5d:
+1.61%
30d:
-22.1%
90d:
-34.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -14.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -14.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.58
49.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LI is currently trading at $12.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.46 to $15.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.7) compared to its historical average (2.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.65, while resistance sits at $13.36.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.47 (+53.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.65, while resistance sits at $13.36.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.47 (+53.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.46 -
$15.03
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.7% below Wall St target ($18.47)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.46 -
$15.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.65
Resistance Level
$13.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.73
Wall Street Target
$18.47
(+53.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.8%
Profit Margin
-1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 2.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.82
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.74
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$14.21
(+18%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1895.4%)
$511.89
(+4159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 1895.4%)
$40.57
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.5, Growth: 1895.4%)
$34.48
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.7 to 2.8
Stabilization Target:
$19.50
(+62.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+62.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 9:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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