MCK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCK - McKesson Corporation
$775.97
15.40 (2.02%)
▲
5d:
+7.01%
30d:
-10.44%
90d:
-18.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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1 traders called MCK this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.5% annual earnings decline despite 37% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.5% annual earnings decline despite 37% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1339.83
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$831.93
6.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCK is currently trading at $775.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $767.74 to $866.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $723.68, while resistance sits at $811.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $949.73 (+22.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $723.68, while resistance sits at $811.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $949.73 (+22.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$767.74 -
$866.01
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.4% below Wall St target ($949.73)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$767.74 -
$866.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$723.68
Resistance Level
$811.96
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.59
Wall Street Target
$949.73
(+22.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.2%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 20.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$741.05
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$707.70
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$675.86
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$776.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.1%)
$1408.53
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 13.1%)
$1121.28
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 13.1%)
$953.09
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $38.41
Bull Case
$960.71
(+24%)
Analyst growth 14.8%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$873.37
(+13%)
Market implied 14.8%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$517.19
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.6 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$890.95
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 19, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Michele Lau
SELL
2725 shares
2026-03-02
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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