MO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MO - Altria Group, Inc.
$61.99
2.23 (3.73%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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2 traders called MO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.03
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $61.99, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.92 to $61.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.41, while resistance sits at $64.22. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: MO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.41, while resistance sits at $64.22. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: MO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$56.92 -
$61.87
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($62.92)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$56.92 -
$61.87
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.41
Resistance Level
$64.22
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.69
Wall Street Target
$62.92
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Profit Margin
44.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.00
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$60.24
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$60.48
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$59.97
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 2.8%)
$135.61
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 2.8%)
$65.01
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 2.8%)
$55.26
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.24
Bull Case
$74.66
(+25%)
Analyst growth 6.7%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$67.87
(+14%)
Market implied 6.7%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$43.26
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-04
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