MOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOS - The Mosaic Company
$25.90
-0.64 (-2.41%)
▼
5d:
+3.6%
30d:
-0.42%
90d:
+7.51%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MOS is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-06-18 with 16,686 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.24
17.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOS is currently trading at $25.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.15 to $28.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.06, while resistance sits at $26.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.27 (+17.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.06, while resistance sits at $26.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.27 (+17.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$25.15 -
$28.50
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.15 -
$28.50
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.06
Resistance Level
$26.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.79
Wall Street Target
$31.27
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
239.5%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.75
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$26.97
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$27.18
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 41.1%)
$154.51
(+482%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 41.1%)
$74.58
(+181%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 41.1%)
$63.39
(+139%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.70
Bull Case
$38.75
(+61%)
Analyst growth 49.3%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$35.23
(+46%)
Market implied 49.3%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$16.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 1:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-01-29
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BUY
2026-01-09
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