SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$56.63
-2.41 (-4.08%)
▼
5d:
-7.29%
30d:
-9.3%
90d:
-17.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.12
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $56.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.71 to $65.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $56.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.00 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $56.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.00 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$59.71 -
$65.04
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.7% below Wall St target ($74.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.71 -
$65.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.44
Resistance Level
$64.02
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.95
Wall Street Target
$74.00
(+30.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 13.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.70
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$52.84
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$51.05
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$56.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$133.26
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 8.4%)
$72.14
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 8.4%)
$61.32
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.50
Bull Case
$87.96
(+55%)
Analyst growth 35.4%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$79.96
(+41%)
Market implied 35.4%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$40.15
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$63.04
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark J Scheiwer
BUY
693 shares
2026-02-24
Hagedorn Partnership, L.…
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-12
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