SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$68.85
0.28 (0.41%)
▲
5d:
-0.69%
30d:
+22.03%
90d:
+12.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.49
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $68.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.21 to $66.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$58.21 -
$66.75
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($72.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.21 -
$66.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.60
Resistance Level
$62.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.66
Wall Street Target
$72.67
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.33
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$73.90
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$76.56
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$68.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$129.84
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 8.3%)
$87.41
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 8.3%)
$74.30
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.48
Bull Case
$101.09
(+47%)
Analyst growth 34.9%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$91.90
(+34%)
Market implied 34.9%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$46.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark J Scheiwer
BUY
693 shares
2026-02-24
Hagedorn Partnership, L.…
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-12
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