Is MPLX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MPLX is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: MPLX is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of MPLX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MPLX to be between $53.24 and $55.72. The current price is $55.90.

What is the analyst price target for MPLX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MPLX is $57.23. This implies a potential upside of 1.8% from current levels.

MPLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MPLX - MPLX LP

PIPE LINES (NO NATURAL GAS)

$55.90

-0.34 (-0.60%) ▼

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Feb 03, 2026 2d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPLX is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -63.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$6.60

Based on -29.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$4.10

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.

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In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MPLX is currently trading at $55.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.24 to $55.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MPLX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: MPLX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Fair Price Range $53.24 - $55.72

Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 58.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($57.23)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $53.24 - $55.72

Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $54.36

Resistance Level $57.16

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.27

Wall Street Target $57.23 (+1.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 50.0%

Profit Margin 41.4%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.4% premium

PE vs Historical 12.3 vs 11.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $57.03 (+1%)

2-Year Target $57.83 (+3%)

3-Year Target $58.64 (+4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→12) PE COMPRESSION $56.37 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: -63.8%) $100.23 (+78%)

Base: (SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: -63.8%) $55.17 (-2%)

Bear: (PE: 10.4, Growth: -63.8%) $46.90 (-17%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 11.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.72

Bull Case $59.53 (+7%)

Analyst growth -2.9%, PE expands to 13.0

Base Case $54.12 (-3%)

Market implied -2.9%, PE stable at 11.8

Bear Case $37.91 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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NEUTRAL

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