Is MSFT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MSFT is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: MSFT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MSFT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MSFT to be between $454.25 and $487.04. The current price is $430.29.

What is the analyst price target for MSFT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MSFT is $616.13. This implies a potential upside of 42.1% from current levels.

MSFT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MSFT - Microsoft Corp

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$430.29

-3.21 (-0.74%) ▼

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Apr 28, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSFT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 18.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$790.24

Based on 11.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$490.68

12.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MSFT is currently trading at $430.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $454.25 to $487.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.3) compared to its historical average (28.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MSFT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $421.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: MSFT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $616.13 (+42.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $454.25 - $487.04

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 42.1% below Wall St target ($616.13)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.7%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $454.25 - $487.04

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $421.02

Resistance Level $483.74

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.30

Wall Street Target $616.13 (+42.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 12.7%

Profit Margin 35.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 23.3 vs 28.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $404.46 (-7%)

2-Year Target $377.36 (-13%)

3-Year Target $352.07 (-19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→29) $433.72 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 23.3, Growth: 18.6%) $723.86 (+67%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 18.6%) $692.87 (+60%)

Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 18.6%) $588.94 (+36%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 34.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.08

Bull Case $698.62 (+61%)

Analyst growth 32.2%, PE expands to 37.6

Base Case $635.11 (+47%)

Market implied 32.2%, PE stable at 34.1

Bear Case $326.79 (-25%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 28.7

Stabilization Target: $534.03 (+23.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +23.2%

Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Kevin Hern SELL 2025-09-26

Val T. Hoyle SELL 2025-09-23

Richard McCormick SELL 2025-09-18

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