MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$84.34
0.09 (0.11%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 01, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.99
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.54
3.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $84.34, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.69 to $86.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$83.69 -
$86.80
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
34th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MSM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 34th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($86.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$83.69 -
$86.80
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.39
(4.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.30
Resistance Level
$88.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.34
Wall Street Target
$86.00
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 19.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.22
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$78.29
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$75.47
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$83.99
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.1%)
$156.67
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 13.1%)
$121.85
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 13.1%)
$103.57
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.67
Bull Case
$121.54
(+44%)
Analyst growth 32.4%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$110.49
(+31%)
Market implied 32.4%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$56.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$93.75
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MSM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MSM price and gamma walls.
