Is FERG stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, FERG is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: FERG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of FERG stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for FERG to be between $226.52 and $236.54. The current price is $230.24.

What is the analyst price target for FERG?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for FERG is $284.57. This implies a potential upside of 23.6% from current levels.

FERG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FERG - Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

WHOLESALE-HARDWARE & PLUMBING & HEATING EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES

$230.24

1.04 (0.45%) ▲

5d: -4.37%

30d: +1.16%

90d: -3.69%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 10, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FERG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 18.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$415.05

Based on 11.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$257.71

10.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FERG is currently trading at $230.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $226.52 to $236.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.9) is in line with its historical norms (20.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $235.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: FERG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (22th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $284.57 (+23.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $226.52 - $236.54

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Options IV Signal 22th percentile (COMPLACENCY WARNING)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 59.6%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 22th percentile)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($284.57)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $226.52 - $236.54

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$11.81 (5.1%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $219.82

Resistance Level $235.50

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Jun 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.88

Wall Street Target $284.57 (+23.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 23.0%

Profit Margin 6.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.9 vs 20.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $224.94 (-2%)

2-Year Target $219.77 (-5%)

3-Year Target $214.72 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→20) $230.85 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.0%) $436.51 (+90%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 18.0%) $378.41 (+64%)

Bear: (PE: 16.0, Growth: 18.0%) $321.65 (+40%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 23.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.16

Bull Case $313.33 (+36%)

Analyst growth 20.0%, PE expands to 25.7

Base Case $284.85 (+24%)

Market implied 20.0%, PE stable at 23.4

Bear Case $161.38 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.9 to 20.3

Stabilization Target: $247.54 (+7.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +7.5%

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Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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