Is MSTR stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MSTR is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: MSTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MSTR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MSTR to be between $153.67 and $168.45. The current price is $149.71.

What is the analyst price target for MSTR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MSTR is $474.31. This implies a potential upside of 231.2% from current levels.

MSTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MSTR - Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A

FINANCE SERVICES

$149.71

6.52 (4.55%) ▲

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Feb 05, 2026 5d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$521.99

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$324.12

53.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MSTR is currently trading at $149.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $153.67 to $168.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.6) compared to its historical average (4.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MSTR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $139.36, while resistance sits at $173.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.

Market Sentiment: MSTR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $474.31 (+231.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $153.67 - $168.45

Company Quality Score 37/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 61.9%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
BULLISH: Trading 231.2% below Wall St target ($474.31)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.2% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $153.67 - $168.45

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $139.36

Resistance Level $173.88

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 2.56

Wall Street Target $474.31 (+231.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -77.5%

Profit Margin 1667.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -18.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 2.6 vs 4.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -18.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $128.87 (-10%)

2-Year Target $115.98 (-19%)

3-Year Target $104.39 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 3→5) $195.41 (+37%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 2204.5%) $4202.96 (+2835%)

Base: (SPY PE: 2.6, Growth: 2204.5%) $483.27 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 2.2, Growth: 2204.5%) $410.78 (+187%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 6.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.37

Bull Case $355.48 (+148%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.3

Base Case $323.16 (+126%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.6

Bear Case $109.87 (-23%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.6 to 4.8

Stabilization Target: $268.05 (+87.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +87.2%

Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 PM

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Technical Signals Check

Is MSTR showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Jarrod M Patten BUY 12000 shares 2025-10-17

Jarrod M Patten BUY 11780 shares 2025-10-16

Wei-Ming Shao SELL 30000 shares 2025-10-07

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Advanced MSTR Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MSTR price and gamma walls.

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