MT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MT - ArcelorMittal
$48.49
-1.13 (-2.28%)
▼
5d:
-6.12%
30d:
-25.58%
90d:
+4.84%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
30d
Smart Money Accumulation
MT is down 4.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-05-15 with 1,312 OI. Call ratio: 86% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.65
35.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MT is currently trading at $48.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.49 to $63.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.40 (+26.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.40 (+26.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$50.49 -
$63.14
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.6% below Wall St target ($61.40)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.1%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.49 -
$63.14
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.37
Resistance Level
$53.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.05
Wall Street Target
$61.40
(+26.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.51
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$40.86
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$37.51
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$48.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 32.4%)
$356.59
(+635%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 32.4%)
$112.53
(+132%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 32.4%)
$95.65
(+97%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.11
Bull Case
$87.88
(+70%)
Analyst growth 67.3%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$79.89
(+55%)
Market implied 67.3%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$32.48
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$62.56
(+29.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MT price and gamma walls.
