TX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$42.78
-1.39 (-3.15%)
▼
5d:
-8.82%
30d:
+1.42%
90d:
-1.99%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.59
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $42.78, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.05 to $45.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$42.05 -
$45.36
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.05 -
$45.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.00
Resistance Level
$49.69
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.53
Wall Street Target
$44.38
(+3.8%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
218.1%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.89
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$45.03
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$46.20
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.79
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.6%)
$153.77
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 11.6%)
$59.43
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 11.6%)
$50.51
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.00
Bull Case
$78.88
(+84%)
Analyst growth 67.2%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$71.71
(+68%)
Market implied 67.2%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$29.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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