NHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$82.41
0.21 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
+0.11%
30d:
-1.97%
90d:
+6.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.18
21.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $82.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.07 to $87.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.6) is in line with its historical norms (23.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NHI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (3th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NHI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (3th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$83.07 -
$87.49
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
3th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 3th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$83.07 -
$87.49
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.61
(3.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.53
Resistance Level
$86.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.64
Wall Street Target
$89.25
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.1%
Profit Margin
37.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 23.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.01
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$79.63
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$78.28
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$82.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 82.3%)
$84.46
(+3%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 82.3%)
$83.37
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 82.3%)
$70.87
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.02
Bull Case
$108.54
(+32%)
Analyst growth 20.5%, PE expands to 29.8
Base Case
$98.67
(+20%)
Market implied 20.5%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$55.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.6 to 23.9
Stabilization Target:
$86.99
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-15
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