NTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTR - Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares
$75.47
0.91 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
+2.42%
30d:
+2.55%
90d:
+22.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
NTR is down 3.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $80 2026-06-18 with 5,863 OI. Call ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.11
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTR is currently trading at $75.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.15 to $78.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $72.21, while resistance sits at $77.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $72.21, while resistance sits at $77.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$73.15 -
$78.66
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($78.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$73.15 -
$78.66
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.21
Resistance Level
$77.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.34
Wall Street Target
$78.00
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
414.7%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.98
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$77.42
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$78.89
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$74.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -6.4%)
$89.13
(+20%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: -6.4%)
$61.19
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: -6.4%)
$52.01
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.66
Bull Case
$84.76
(+16%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case
$77.06
(+6%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$50.82
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NTR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NTR price and gamma walls.
