MOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOS - The Mosaic Company
$21.76
-0.92 (-4.06%)
▼
5d:
-1.94%
30d:
-12.01%
90d:
-26.61%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
MOS is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-06-18 with 18,428 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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4 traders called MOS this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MOS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MOS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.47
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOS is currently trading at $21.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.56 to $25.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.33 (+30.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.33 (+30.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.56 -
$25.06
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($28.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.56 -
$25.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.17
Resistance Level
$23.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.74
Wall Street Target
$28.33
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
239.5%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.00
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$22.24
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$22.49
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.76
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 123.6%)
$150.85
(+593%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 123.6%)
$73.44
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 123.6%)
$62.42
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 15.62 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.39
Bull Case
$26.28
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$21.76
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$16.65
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-09
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