OGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OGN - Organon & Co.
$6.14
0.15 (2.50%)
▲
5d:
+0.66%
30d:
-11.01%
90d:
-13.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
OGN is down 6.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $7.5 2026-06-18 with 1,079 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OGN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OGN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.36
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.81
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OGN is currently trading at $6.14, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.96 to $7.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.6) compared to its historical average (1.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OGN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+46.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OGN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+46.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$5.96 -
$7.16
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.6% below Wall St target ($9.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.96 -
$7.16
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.69
Resistance Level
$6.31
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.65
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+46.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-55.8%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 1.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.82
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$5.52
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$5.23
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$6.03
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.5%)
$103.45
(+1585%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 7.5%)
$7.63
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 7.5%)
$6.48
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.72
Bull Case
$13.27
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$12.06
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$4.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.6 to 1.9
Stabilization Target:
$7.08
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced OGN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OGN price and gamma walls.
