PCAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCAR - Paccar Inc
$122.91
-0.41 (-0.33%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PCAR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PCAR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$269.43
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$167.29
26.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $122.91, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.90 to $122.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$112.90 -
$122.24
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PCAR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($118.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$112.90 -
$122.24
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.50
Resistance Level
$125.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.78
Wall Street Target
$118.33
(-4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.5%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 20.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.14
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$113.18
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$108.43
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$123.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.4%)
$297.71
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 24.4%)
$237.37
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 24.4%)
$201.76
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.51
Bull Case
$208.18
(+69%)
Analyst growth 53.8%, PE expands to 30.0
Base Case
$189.25
(+54%)
Market implied 53.8%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$83.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$140.11
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PCAR price and gamma walls.
