SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$63.14
2.13 (3.48%)
▲
5d:
+1.52%
30d:
-8.41%
90d:
+8.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.81
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $63.13, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.44 to $68.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.99, while resistance sits at $67.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (3th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.00 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.99, while resistance sits at $67.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (3th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.00 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$61.44 -
$68.49
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
3th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 3th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($75.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$61.44 -
$68.49
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.87
(6.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.99
Resistance Level
$67.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.62
Wall Street Target
$75.00
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.97
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$58.95
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$57.95
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$61.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.7%)
$154.80
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 12.7%)
$87.42
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 12.7%)
$74.30
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$119.49
(+82%)
Analyst growth 74.4%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$108.63
(+65%)
Market implied 74.4%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$42.34
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$64.29
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark J Scheiwer
BUY
693 shares
2026-02-24
Hagedorn Partnership, L.…
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-12
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