SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$17.86
-1.09 (-5.75%)
▼
5d:
-7.22%
30d:
-8.97%
90d:
-12.49%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.56
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $17.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.01 to $20.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.01 -
$20.14
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.01 -
$20.14
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.00
Resistance Level
$20.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.07
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.40
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$16.94
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$16.50
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$17.84
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -3.4%)
$38.89
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: -3.4%)
$16.08
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: -3.4%)
$13.67
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.96
Bull Case
$20.95
(+17%)
Analyst growth 0.5%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$19.05
(+7%)
Market implied 0.5%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$12.89
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$19.31
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 6:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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