TRN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRN - Trinity Industries, Inc.
$34.26
-1.02 (-2.89%)
▼
5d:
-6.47%
30d:
+5.51%
90d:
-2.34%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
TRN is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $37 2026-07-17 with 16 OI. Call ratio: 88% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
Get Alerted When TRN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.54
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRN is currently trading at $34.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.88 to $35.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TRN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TRN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$31.88 -
$35.83
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
30th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TRN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 30th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.88 -
$35.83
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.01
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.14
Resistance Level
$37.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.43
Wall Street Target
$35.50
(+3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.03
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$31.84
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$30.69
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$34.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 2.2%)
$55.87
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 2.2%)
$36.52
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 2.2%)
$31.04
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.17
Bull Case
$29.08
(-15%)
Analyst growth -25.1%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$26.43
(-23%)
Market implied -25.1%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$23.99
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$38.24
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 12:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TRN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Railroads Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Railroads by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas … |
STRONG BUY
32 analysts |
$92 | 60 HOLD |
|
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation |
BUY
29 analysts |
$291 | 61 BUY |
|
CNI
Canadian National Railwa… |
BUY
32 analysts |
$116 | 57 HOLD |
|
CSX
CSX Corporation |
BUY
27 analysts |
$46 | 60 BUY |
|
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corpora… |
BUY
27 analysts |
$335 | 58 HOLD |
Advanced TRN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TRN price and gamma walls.
