TSLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSLA - Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
$430.41
13.85 (3.32%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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64 traders called TSLA this week
73% bullish • 31 bearish
73% bullish • 31 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.74
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSLA is currently trading at $430.41, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $427.30 to $464.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 137.3) compared to its historical average (199.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $414.62, while resistance sits at $452.43. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $414.62, while resistance sits at $452.43. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$427.30 -
$464.20
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($411.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$427.30 -
$464.20
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$414.62
Resistance Level
$452.43
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
137.27
Wall Street Target
$411.40
(-1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.1%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
137.3 vs 199.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$374.90
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$337.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$303.67
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 137→199)
$440.69
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 137.3, Growth: 27.0%)
$852.77
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 27.0%)
$138.54
(-67%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 27.0%)
$117.76
(-72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (196x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (137x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 196.08 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.12
Bull Case
$503.00
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 205.9
Base Case
$416.56
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 196.1
Bear Case
$318.67
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 176.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 137.3 to 199.2
Stabilization Target:
$604.51
(+45.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.1%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marjorie Taylor Greene
BUY
2025-10-15
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSLA price and gamma walls.
