Is TSM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSM is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: TSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TSM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSM to be between $338.63 and $372.85. The current price is $338.89.

What is the analyst price target for TSM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSM is $421.49. This implies a potential upside of 24.4% from current levels.

TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Semiconductors & Related Devices

$338.89

-14.97 (-4.23%) ▼

5d: -9.53%

30d: +4.04%

90d: +15.16%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TSM Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 16, 2026

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why TSM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Distribution

TSM is up 11.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $320 2026-03-20 with 18,824 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →

Strength: 6.7/10

Get Alerted When TSM Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$721.02

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$447.70

24.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $338.89, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $338.63 to $372.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.9) is in line with its historical norms (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $341.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $421.49 (+24.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Fair Price Range $338.63 - $372.85

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

Protect Your Profits

Holding TSM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.2%)
BULLISH: Trading 24.4% below Wall St target ($421.49)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.5% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $338.63 - $372.85

Current vs Fair Value SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $341.60

Resistance Level $390.21

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Mar 6, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.85

Wall Street Target $421.49 (+24.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 20.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 35.0%

Profit Margin 45.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.9 vs 20.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $328.72 (-3%)

2-Year Target $318.86 (-6%)

3-Year Target $309.30 (-9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→21) $337.92 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 25.5%) $793.16 (+134%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 25.5%) $670.63 (+98%)

Bear: (PE: 16.0, Growth: 25.5%) $570.03 (+68%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 35.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.59

Bull Case $703.48 (+88%)

Analyst growth 69.7%, PE expands to 39.1

Base Case $639.53 (+71%)

Market implied 69.7%, PE stable at 35.6

Bear Case $256.23 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.9 to 20.6

Stabilization Target: $370.25 (+9.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +9.3%

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: March 06, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is TSM showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

NEUTRAL

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for TSM.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Featured in Portfolios

TSM is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.

Semiconductor Kings Sector • +4.9% Return

View All Strategies

Top Rated Semiconductors Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Semiconductors by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
AVGO Broadcom Inc	STRONG BUY 42 analysts	$456	67 BUY
MRVL Marvell Technology Group…	STRONG BUY 37 analysts	$116	67 BUY
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation	STRONG BUY 63 analysts	$254	56 HOLD
MU Micron Technology Inc	STRONG BUY 37 analysts	$391	55 HOLD
NXPI NXP Semiconductors NV	STRONG BUY 32 analysts	$261	43 HOLD

AVGO Broadcom Inc

67 BUY

MRVL Marvell Technolog…

67 BUY

NVDA NVIDIA Corporation

56 HOLD

MU Micron Technology…

55 HOLD

NXPI NXP Semiconductor…

43 HOLD

Advanced TSM Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSM price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for TSM

TSM Technical Chart TSM Price Prediction TSM Earnings Date TSM Investment Advisor TSM Fair Price Analyzer TSM Options Advisor TSM Options Chain TSM Options Analysis TSM Competitors

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Semiconductors & Related Devices

About

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with mid-60s market share in 2024. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public in Taiwan in 1994 and as an ADR in the US in 1997. TSMC's scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious customer base, including Apple, AMD, and Nvidia, that looks to apply cutting-edge process technologies to its semiconductor designs. TSMC employs more than 83,000 people.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $1,496,156,319,811

Employees: 83,825

Listed Since: 1997-10-08

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001046179

Compare TSM with Other Stocks

SGN vs TSM
Winner: Tie

Create New Comparison

Tradestie