TX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$38.48
-0.28 (-0.72%)
▼
5d:
+0.42%
30d:
-11.48%
90d:
+0.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.36
31.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $38.48, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.05 to $42.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.92, while resistance sits at $39.84.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.92, while resistance sits at $39.84.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$38.05 -
$42.46
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.19)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.05 -
$42.46
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.24
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.93
Resistance Level
$39.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.19
Wall Street Target
$40.19
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.5%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.06
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$33.78
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$31.66
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$38.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 64.7%)
$468.79
(+1118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 64.7%)
$129.87
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 64.7%)
$110.39
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.20
Bull Case
$82.46
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$74.96
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$25.49
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$46.61
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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