MT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MT - ArcelorMittal
$63.78
-0.69 (-1.07%)
▼
5d:
+4.32%
30d:
+3.59%
90d:
+3.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
MT is down 6.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $65 2026-06-18 with 1,483 OI. Call ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.22
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MT is currently trading at $63.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.03 to $62.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$57.03 -
$62.52
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($65.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 4.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.03 -
$62.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.96
Resistance Level
$65.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.11
Wall Street Target
$65.60
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.9%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.16
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$64.55
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$64.93
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.18
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 41.6%)
$438.65
(+588%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 41.6%)
$181.24
(+184%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 41.6%)
$154.05
(+142%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.82
Bull Case
$128.52
(+102%)
Analyst growth 83.4%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$116.83
(+83%)
Market implied 83.4%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$43.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MT price and gamma walls.
