UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$35.03
0.26 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
+0.52%
30d:
+5.35%
90d:
-5.66%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UGI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UGI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.37
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.35
11.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $35.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.41 to $35.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$33.41 -
$35.37
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($43.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.41 -
$35.37
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.53
Resistance Level
$35.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.49
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.43
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$33.85
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$33.27
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$34.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$124.27
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 19.3%)
$59.46
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$50.54
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.84
Bull Case
$44.98
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.6%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$40.89
(+17%)
Market implied 17.6%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$23.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$36.74
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 6:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean Felix Tematio
SELL
12840 shares
2026-02-11
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