VRRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRRM - Verra Mobility Corporation Class A Common Stock
$13.10
-0.15 (-1.13%)
▼
5d:
-8.39%
30d:
-11.73%
90d:
-28.69%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VRRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VRRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.59
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.62
33.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRRM is currently trading at $13.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.02 to $15.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.71 (+65.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.71 (+65.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.02 -
$15.25
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 65.8% below Wall St target ($21.71)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.02 -
$15.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.01
Resistance Level
$15.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.35
Wall Street Target
$21.71
(+65.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
13.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 12.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.79
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.55
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→13)
$14.42
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$53.84
(+311%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 15.8%)
$20.36
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$17.31
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.82
Bull Case
$27.90
(+113%)
Analyst growth 91.4%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$25.36
(+94%)
Market implied 91.4%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$9.01
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$19.78
(+51.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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