Target Price Playground
AAOI
$150.60
๐ข
AAOI IV: 117.5% โ LOW
(-27.5% vs 30d avg of 162.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.3 ยท ฮ -0.37
SHORT PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.2 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAOI hits $135 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$590 (143.9%) on $410 risked, vs $-1,560 (-10.4%) for 100 shares on $15,060. Options give 13.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAOI is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAOI hits $135 by Jun 19
+$590
+143.9% on $410 risked
Max Profit
+$590
If the stock โค $140 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$410
Net debit
Break-even
$145.90
-3.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-4.11 / -1.68 / 0.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAOI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $120 (-20%) | +$309 | +$321 | +$357 | +$590 |
| $128 (-15%) | +$270 | +$274 | +$295 | +$590 |
| $135 (-10%) โ target | +$235 | +$230 | +$234 | +$590 |
| $143 (-5%) | +$194 | +$180 | +$164 | +$283 |
| $148 (-2%) | +$172 | +$153 | +$125 | -$169 |
| $151 (0%) โ spot | +$157 | +$135 | +$99 | -$410 |
| $154 (+2%) | +$143 | +$117 | +$74 | -$410 |
| $158 (+5%) | +$122 | +$91 | +$38 | -$410 |
| $166 (+10%) | +$87 | +$49 | -$20 | -$410 |
| $173 (+15%) | +$54 | +$9 | -$73 | -$410 |
| $181 (+20%) | +$23 | -$28 | -$121 | -$410 |
Uses AAOI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.