Target Price Playground
AAOI
$150.60
๐ข
AAOI IV: 117.5% โ LOW
(-27.5% vs 30d avg of 162.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.25 ยท ฮ 0.64
SHORT CALL ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.69 ยท ฮ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAOI hits $170 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$744 (98.4%) on $756 risked, vs +$1,940 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $15,060. Options give 7.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAOI is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAOI hits $170 by Jun 19
+$744
+98.4% on $756 risked
Max Profit
+$744
If the stock โฅ $165 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$756
Net debit
Break-even
$157.56
+4.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
5.81 / 0.55 / -1.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAOI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $120 (-20%) | -$419 | -$446 | -$517 | -$756 |
| $128 (-15%) | -$367 | -$384 | -$441 | -$756 |
| $136 (-10%) | -$313 | -$320 | -$357 | -$756 |
| $143 (-5%) | -$260 | -$255 | -$268 | -$756 |
| $148 (-2%) | -$228 | -$216 | -$214 | -$756 |
| $151 (0%) โ spot | -$207 | -$190 | -$178 | -$696 |
| $154 (+2%) | -$186 | -$165 | -$142 | -$395 |
| $158 (+5%) | -$156 | -$126 | -$88 | +$57 |
| $166 (+10%) | -$105 | -$64 | +$0 | +$744 |
| $170 (+13%) โ target | -$77 | -$29 | +$49 | +$744 |
| $173 (+15%) | -$56 | -$4 | +$84 | +$744 |
| $181 (+20%) | -$9 | +$53 | +$163 | +$744 |
Uses AAOI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.