Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
AAOI
$150.60
๐ŸŸข
AAOI IV: 117.5% โ€” LOW (-27.5% vs 30d avg of 162.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.2 ยท ฮ” -0.32
P&L at Expiry Now $151 Target $160 $105 $151 $196
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If AAOI hits $160 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$3,120 (28.7%) on $-3,120 credit (max loss $10,880), vs +$940 (6.2%) for 100 shares on $15,060. Options give 4.6ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAOI is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if AAOI hits $160 by Jun 19
+$3,120
+28.7% on $10,880 max loss
Max Profit
+$3,120
If the stock โ‰ฅ $140 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$10,880
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$108.80
-27.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
91%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
32.43 / 24.01 / -23.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

AAOI Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$120 (-20%) -$630 -$192 +$369 +$1,168
$128 (-15%) -$271 +$196 +$809 +$1,921
$136 (-10%) +$55 +$544 +$1,194 +$2,674
$143 (-5%) +$350 +$855 +$1,526 +$3,120
$148 (-2%) +$514 +$1,025 +$1,701 +$3,120
$151 (0%) โ† spot +$617 +$1,131 +$1,808 +$3,120
$154 (+2%) +$717 +$1,233 +$1,909 +$3,120
$158 (+5%) +$859 +$1,376 +$2,047 +$3,120
$160 (+6%) โ† target +$915 +$1,432 +$2,100 +$3,120
$166 (+10%) +$1,077 +$1,592 +$2,247 +$3,120
$173 (+15%) +$1,274 +$1,782 +$2,412 +$3,120
$181 (+20%) +$1,451 +$1,950 +$2,548 +$3,120
Uses AAOI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.