Target Price Playground
AAOI
$150.60
๐ข
AAOI IV: 117.5% โ LOW
(-27.5% vs 30d avg of 162.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $150.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.69 ยท ฮ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAOI hits $165 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,609 (38.8%) on $11,891 risked, vs +$1,440 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $15,060. Options give 4.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAOI is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAOI hits $165 by Jun 19
+$4,609
+38.8% on $11,891 risked
Max Profit
+$4,609
If the stock โฅ $165 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$11,891
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$118.91
-21.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
42.19 / 27.66 / -25.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAOI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $120 (-20%) | -$1,146 | -$708 | -$213 | +$157 |
| $128 (-15%) | -$696 | -$210 | +$366 | +$910 |
| $136 (-10%) | -$279 | +$249 | +$900 | +$1,663 |
| $143 (-5%) | +$107 | +$672 | +$1,386 | +$2,416 |
| $148 (-2%) | +$325 | +$908 | +$1,655 | +$2,868 |
| $151 (0%) โ spot | +$464 | +$1,059 | +$1,824 | +$3,169 |
| $154 (+2%) | +$599 | +$1,203 | +$1,986 | +$3,470 |
| $158 (+5%) | +$793 | +$1,411 | +$2,214 | +$3,922 |
| $165 (+10%) โ target | +$1,071 | +$1,704 | +$2,531 | +$4,609 |
| $173 (+15%) | +$1,375 | +$2,021 | +$2,862 | +$4,609 |
| $181 (+20%) | +$1,630 | +$2,283 | +$3,124 | +$4,609 |
Uses AAOI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.