Target Price Playground
AAOI
$150.60
๐ข
AAOI IV: 117.5% โ LOW
(-27.5% vs 30d avg of 162.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.25 ยท ฮ 0.64
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAOI hits $170 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-1,925 (-49.0%) on $3,925 risked, vs +$1,940 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $15,060. Options give 3.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAOI is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAOI hits $170 by Jun 19
$-1,925
-49.0% on $3,925 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,925
Premium paid
Break-even
$189.25
+25.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.62 / -27.11 / 24.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAOI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $120 (-20%) | -$2,285 | -$2,751 | -$3,316 | -$3,925 |
| $128 (-15%) | -$1,929 | -$2,433 | -$3,066 | -$3,925 |
| $136 (-10%) | -$1,540 | -$2,076 | -$2,763 | -$3,925 |
| $143 (-5%) | -$1,120 | -$1,680 | -$2,408 | -$3,925 |
| $148 (-2%) | -$854 | -$1,425 | -$2,170 | -$3,925 |
| $151 (0%) โ spot | -$672 | -$1,249 | -$2,002 | -$3,865 |
| $154 (+2%) | -$485 | -$1,067 | -$1,826 | -$3,564 |
| $158 (+5%) | -$196 | -$784 | -$1,549 | -$3,112 |
| $166 (+10%) | +$305 | -$289 | -$1,053 | -$2,359 |
| $170 (+13%) โ target | +$604 | +$9 | -$749 | -$1,925 |
| $173 (+15%) | +$828 | +$234 | -$519 | -$1,606 |
| $181 (+20%) | +$1,372 | +$782 | +$50 | -$853 |
Uses AAOI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.