Target Price Playground
AAPL
$260.48
๐ข
AAPL IV: 29.8% โ LOW
(-32.8% vs 30d avg of 44.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $260 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.05 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.85 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $230 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,380 (222.6%) on $620 risked, vs $-3,048 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $26,048. Options give 19.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $230 by Jun 19
+$1,380
+222.6% on $620 risked
Max Profit
+$1,380
If the stock โค $240 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$620
Net debit
Break-even
$253.80
-2.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.04 / 1.89 / 7.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | +$1,207 | +$1,282 | +$1,355 | +$1,380 |
| $221 (-15%) | +$1,019 | +$1,115 | +$1,256 | +$1,380 |
| $230 (-12%) โ target | +$848 | +$936 | +$1,090 | +$1,380 |
| $234 (-10%) | +$749 | +$824 | +$965 | +$1,380 |
| $247 (-5%) | +$431 | +$447 | +$478 | +$634 |
| $255 (-2%) | +$241 | +$217 | +$163 | -$147 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | +$121 | +$72 | -$27 | -$620 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$8 | -$59 | -$190 | -$620 |
| $274 (+5%) | -$141 | -$226 | -$375 | -$620 |
| $287 (+10%) | -$335 | -$423 | -$542 | -$620 |
| $300 (+15%) | -$463 | -$532 | -$601 | -$620 |
| $313 (+20%) | -$539 | -$585 | -$616 | -$620 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.