Target Price Playground
AAPL
$260.48
๐ข
AAPL IV: 29.8% โ LOW
(-32.8% vs 30d avg of 44.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $260.48 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $280 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.57 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $280 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,409 (9.4%) on $25,591 risked, vs +$1,952 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $26,048. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $280 by Jun 19
+$2,409
+9.4% on $25,591 risked
Max Profit
+$2,409
If the stock โฅ $280 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$25,591
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$255.91
-1.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.6 / 7.61 / -41.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | -$4,765 | -$4,755 | -$4,753 | -$4,753 |
| $221 (-15%) | -$3,496 | -$3,462 | -$3,450 | -$3,450 |
| $234 (-10%) | -$2,283 | -$2,202 | -$2,154 | -$2,148 |
| $247 (-5%) | -$1,171 | -$1,018 | -$887 | -$845 |
| $255 (-2%) | -$574 | -$375 | -$173 | -$64 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | -$210 | +$18 | +$269 | +$457 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$125 | +$377 | +$674 | +$978 |
| $274 (+5%) | +$568 | +$848 | +$1,195 | +$1,759 |
| $280 (+7%) โ target | +$884 | +$1,175 | +$1,542 | +$2,409 |
| $287 (+10%) | +$1,153 | +$1,445 | +$1,809 | +$2,409 |
| $300 (+15%) | +$1,562 | +$1,829 | +$2,133 | +$2,409 |
| $313 (+20%) | +$1,828 | +$2,050 | +$2,269 | +$2,409 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.