Target Price Playground
AAPL
$260.48
๐ข
AAPL IV: 29.8% โ LOW
(-32.8% vs 30d avg of 44.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $260 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.15 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.0 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $245 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$939 (131.4%) on $715 risked, vs $-1,548 (-5.9%) for 100 shares on $26,048. Options give 22.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $245 by Jun 19
+$939
+131.4% on $715 risked
Max Profit
+$936
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$715
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$260.22
-0.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.0 / 1.17 / 15.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | +$659 | +$690 | +$707 | +$698 |
| $221 (-15%) | +$595 | +$652 | +$715 | +$716 |
| $234 (-10%) | +$473 | +$544 | +$653 | +$803 |
| $245 (-6%) โ target | +$333 | +$393 | +$498 | +$998 |
| $255 (-2%) | +$173 | +$206 | +$261 | +$330 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | +$88 | +$104 | +$125 | +$66 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$3 | +$1 | -$12 | -$148 |
| $274 (+5%) | -$121 | -$146 | -$202 | -$383 |
| $287 (+10%) | -$304 | -$356 | -$444 | -$597 |
| $300 (+15%) | -$448 | -$507 | -$588 | -$680 |
| $313 (+20%) | -$551 | -$603 | -$661 | -$706 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.