Target Price Playground
AAPL
$260.48
๐ข
AAPL IV: 29.8% โ LOW
(-32.8% vs 30d avg of 44.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $285 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $260.48 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.0 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $285 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,852 (6.9%) on $26,648 risked, vs +$2,452 (9.4%) for 100 shares on $26,048. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $285. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $285 by Jun 19
+$1,852
+6.9% on $26,648 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,148
Put floors you at $245
Break-even
$266.48
+2.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
72.58 / -7.7 / 36.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | -$2,194 | -$2,216 | -$2,208 | -$2,148 |
| $221 (-15%) | -$1,954 | -$2,052 | -$2,143 | -$2,148 |
| $234 (-10%) | -$1,525 | -$1,688 | -$1,896 | -$2,148 |
| $247 (-5%) | -$875 | -$1,066 | -$1,321 | -$1,902 |
| $255 (-2%) | -$384 | -$568 | -$805 | -$1,121 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | -$18 | -$190 | -$400 | -$600 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$376 | +$219 | +$43 | -$79 |
| $274 (+5%) | +$1,009 | +$881 | +$755 | +$702 |
| $285 (+9%) โ target | +$2,017 | +$1,930 | +$1,865 | +$1,852 |
| $300 (+15%) | +$3,377 | +$3,331 | +$3,309 | +$3,307 |
| $313 (+20%) | +$4,640 | +$4,618 | +$4,610 | +$4,610 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.