Target Price Playground
ABBV
$207.94
๐ข
ABBV IV: 32.0% โ LOW
(-34.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $210 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.55 ยท ฮ -0.49
SHORT PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.1 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ABBV hits $185 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,255 (168.5%) on $745 risked, vs $-2,294 (-11.0%) for 100 shares on $20,794. Options give 15.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ABBV is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ABBV hits $185 by Jun 19
+$1,255
+168.5% on $745 risked
Max Profit
+$1,255
If the stock โค $190 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$745
Net debit
Break-even
$202.55
-2.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
42%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-24.59 / -1.22 / 6.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ABBV Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $166 (-20%) | +$1,054 | +$1,134 | +$1,219 | +$1,255 |
| $177 (-15%) | +$868 | +$961 | +$1,103 | +$1,255 |
| $185 (-11%) โ target | +$670 | +$748 | +$890 | +$1,255 |
| $187 (-10%) | +$613 | +$683 | +$814 | +$1,255 |
| $198 (-5%) | +$321 | +$336 | +$367 | +$501 |
| $204 (-2%) | +$145 | +$124 | +$79 | -$123 |
| $208 (0%) โ spot | +$33 | -$10 | -$99 | -$539 |
| $212 (+2%) | -$73 | -$135 | -$256 | -$745 |
| $218 (+5%) | -$216 | -$298 | -$443 | -$745 |
| $229 (+10%) | -$409 | -$499 | -$631 | -$745 |
| $239 (+15%) | -$544 | -$623 | -$710 | -$745 |
| $250 (+20%) | -$632 | -$689 | -$736 | -$745 |
Uses ABBV's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.