Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ABBV hits $220 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$510 (2.8%) on $-510 credit (max loss $18,490), vs +$1,206 (5.8%) for 100 shares on $20,794. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ABBV is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ABBV Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $166 (-20%) | -$1,936 | -$1,876 | -$1,832 | -$1,855 |
| $177 (-15%) | -$1,176 | -$1,057 | -$917 | -$815 |
| $187 (-10%) | -$579 | -$423 | -$214 | +$225 |
| $198 (-5%) | -$148 | +$10 | +$214 | +$510 |
| $204 (-2%) | +$39 | +$183 | +$355 | +$510 |
| $208 (0%) โ spot | +$137 | +$268 | +$414 | +$510 |
| $212 (+2%) | +$218 | +$335 | +$452 | +$510 |
| $220 (+6%) โ target | +$332 | +$418 | +$490 | +$510 |
| $229 (+10%) | +$410 | +$468 | +$505 | +$510 |
| $239 (+15%) | +$462 | +$495 | +$509 | +$510 |
| $250 (+20%) | +$488 | +$505 | +$510 | +$510 |