Target Price Playground
ABBV
$207.94
๐ข
ABBV IV: 32.0% โ LOW
(-34.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $225 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $207.94 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.67 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ABBV hits $225 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,273 (11.2%) on $20,227 risked, vs +$1,706 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $20,794. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ABBV is at $225. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ABBV hits $225 by Jun 19
+$2,273
+11.2% on $20,227 risked
Max Profit
+$2,273
If the stock โฅ $225 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$20,227
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$202.27
-2.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.3 / 8.42 / -32.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ABBV Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $166 (-20%) | -$3,607 | -$3,595 | -$3,592 | -$3,592 |
| $177 (-15%) | -$2,601 | -$2,566 | -$2,553 | -$2,552 |
| $187 (-10%) | -$1,642 | -$1,566 | -$1,519 | -$1,512 |
| $198 (-5%) | -$765 | -$630 | -$513 | -$473 |
| $204 (-2%) | -$290 | -$119 | +$55 | +$151 |
| $208 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$195 | +$409 | +$567 |
| $212 (+2%) | +$269 | +$484 | +$734 | +$983 |
| $218 (+5%) | +$630 | +$867 | +$1,161 | +$1,607 |
| $225 (+8%) โ target | +$958 | +$1,208 | +$1,523 | +$2,273 |
| $229 (+10%) | +$1,116 | +$1,368 | +$1,683 | +$2,273 |
| $239 (+15%) | +$1,470 | +$1,707 | +$1,985 | +$2,273 |
| $250 (+20%) | +$1,713 | +$1,917 | +$2,128 | +$2,273 |
Uses ABBV's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.