Target Price Playground
ADBE
$225.35
๐ข
ADBE IV: 43.5% โ LOW
(-26.6% vs 30d avg of 59.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.18 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.45 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $200 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,227 (158.7%) on $773 risked, vs $-2,535 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $22,535. Options give 14.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $200 by Jun 19
+$1,227
+158.7% on $773 risked
Max Profit
+$1,227
If the stock โค $205 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$773
Net debit
Break-even
$217.27
-3.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.7 / -1.3 / 6.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 (-20%) | +$874 | +$963 | +$1,099 | +$1,227 |
| $192 (-15%) | +$695 | +$772 | +$915 | +$1,227 |
| $200 (-11%) โ target | +$544 | +$597 | +$707 | +$1,227 |
| $203 (-10%) | +$491 | +$534 | +$627 | +$1,227 |
| $214 (-5%) | +$277 | +$275 | +$275 | +$319 |
| $221 (-2%) | +$150 | +$122 | +$64 | -$357 |
| $225 (0%) โ spot | +$69 | +$23 | -$69 | -$773 |
| $230 (+2%) | -$9 | -$70 | -$191 | -$773 |
| $237 (+5%) | -$119 | -$198 | -$349 | -$773 |
| $248 (+10%) | -$280 | -$378 | -$543 | -$773 |
| $259 (+15%) | -$412 | -$513 | -$659 | -$773 |
| $270 (+20%) | -$515 | -$609 | -$722 | -$773 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.