Target Price Playground
ADBE
$225.35
๐ข
ADBE IV: 43.5% โ LOW
(-26.6% vs 30d avg of 59.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.99 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.38 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $250 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,139 (132.3%) on $861 risked, vs +$2,465 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $22,535. Options give 12.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $250 by Jun 19
+$1,139
+132.3% on $861 risked
Max Profit
+$1,139
If the stock โฅ $245 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$861
Net debit
Break-even
$233.61
+3.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.66 / -1.67 / 2.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 (-20%) | -$705 | -$772 | -$841 | -$861 |
| $192 (-15%) | -$593 | -$675 | -$789 | -$861 |
| $203 (-10%) | -$446 | -$527 | -$669 | -$861 |
| $214 (-5%) | -$271 | -$332 | -$458 | -$861 |
| $221 (-2%) | -$156 | -$198 | -$291 | -$861 |
| $225 (0%) โ spot | -$78 | -$104 | -$167 | -$826 |
| $230 (+2%) | +$1 | -$8 | -$37 | -$375 |
| $237 (+5%) | +$118 | +$135 | +$161 | +$301 |
| $250 (+11%) โ target | +$339 | +$402 | +$523 | +$1,139 |
| $259 (+15%) | +$476 | +$562 | +$721 | +$1,139 |
| $270 (+20%) | +$624 | +$727 | +$898 | +$1,139 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.