Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $235 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$945 (4.8%) on $-945 credit (max loss $19,555), vs +$965 (4.3%) for 100 shares on $22,535. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 (-20%) | -$1,956 | -$1,792 | -$1,614 | -$1,527 |
| $192 (-15%) | -$1,231 | -$1,011 | -$734 | -$400 |
| $203 (-10%) | -$640 | -$389 | -$55 | +$726 |
| $214 (-5%) | -$177 | +$77 | +$408 | +$945 |
| $221 (-2%) | +$45 | +$289 | +$593 | +$945 |
| $225 (0%) โ spot | +$172 | +$405 | +$685 | +$945 |
| $230 (+2%) | +$284 | +$504 | +$756 | +$945 |
| $235 (+4%) โ target | +$395 | +$598 | +$816 | +$945 |
| $248 (+10%) | +$604 | +$761 | +$899 | +$945 |
| $259 (+15%) | +$726 | +$843 | +$928 | +$945 |
| $270 (+20%) | +$806 | +$890 | +$939 | +$945 |