Target Price Playground
ADBE
$225.35
๐ข
ADBE IV: 43.5% โ LOW
(-26.6% vs 30d avg of 59.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $225.35 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.38 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $245 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,003 (14.0%) on $21,497 risked, vs +$1,965 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $22,535. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $245 by Jun 19
+$3,003
+14.0% on $21,497 risked
Max Profit
+$3,003
If the stock โฅ $245 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$21,497
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$214.97
-4.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.96 / 13.24 / -35.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 (-20%) | -$3,575 | -$3,505 | -$3,472 | -$3,469 |
| $192 (-15%) | -$2,559 | -$2,437 | -$2,356 | -$2,342 |
| $203 (-10%) | -$1,616 | -$1,429 | -$1,268 | -$1,216 |
| $214 (-5%) | -$763 | -$508 | -$243 | -$89 |
| $221 (-2%) | -$301 | -$9 | +$321 | +$587 |
| $225 (0%) โ spot | -$14 | +$300 | +$669 | +$1,038 |
| $230 (+2%) | +$255 | +$587 | +$992 | +$1,489 |
| $237 (+5%) | +$624 | +$978 | +$1,423 | +$2,165 |
| $245 (+9%) โ target | +$1,026 | +$1,395 | +$1,866 | +$3,003 |
| $248 (+10%) | +$1,151 | +$1,522 | +$1,995 | +$3,003 |
| $259 (+15%) | +$1,575 | +$1,940 | +$2,391 | +$3,003 |
| $270 (+20%) | +$1,907 | +$2,248 | +$2,642 | +$3,003 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.