Target Price Playground
ADBE
$225.35
๐ข
ADBE IV: 43.5% โ LOW
(-26.6% vs 30d avg of 59.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.51 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $215 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.89 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $215 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$966 (146.0%) on $662 risked, vs $-1,035 (-4.6%) for 100 shares on $22,535. Options give 31.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $215 by Jun 19
+$966
+146.0% on $662 risked
Max Profit
+$954
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$642
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$236.09
+4.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-7.96 / 2.2 / 8.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 (-20%) | +$302 | +$335 | +$358 | +$301 |
| $192 (-15%) | +$283 | +$335 | +$403 | +$387 |
| $203 (-10%) | +$241 | +$304 | +$409 | +$577 |
| $215 (-5%) โ target | +$170 | +$230 | +$340 | +$952 |
| $221 (-2%) | +$128 | +$180 | +$278 | +$622 |
| $225 (0%) โ spot | +$92 | +$138 | +$219 | +$400 |
| $230 (+2%) | +$55 | +$92 | +$154 | +$207 |
| $237 (+5%) | -$3 | +$18 | +$47 | -$32 |
| $248 (+10%) | -$103 | -$107 | -$132 | -$312 |
| $259 (+15%) | -$200 | -$227 | -$290 | -$480 |
| $270 (+20%) | -$289 | -$332 | -$415 | -$573 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.