Target Price Playground
ADBE
$225.35
๐ข
ADBE IV: 43.5% โ LOW
(-26.6% vs 30d avg of 59.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.18 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $200 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$782 (45.5%) on $1,718 risked, vs $-2,535 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $22,535. Options give 4.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $200 by Jun 19
+$782
+45.5% on $1,718 risked
Max Profit
+$20,782
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,718
Premium paid
Break-even
$207.82
-7.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.71 / -12.81 / 37.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 (-20%) | +$2,830 | +$2,754 | +$2,713 | +$2,754 |
| $192 (-15%) | +$1,927 | +$1,783 | +$1,649 | +$1,627 |
| $200 (-11%) โ target | +$1,319 | +$1,126 | +$911 | +$782 |
| $203 (-10%) | +$1,131 | +$924 | +$682 | +$501 |
| $214 (-5%) | +$453 | +$198 | -$132 | -$626 |
| $221 (-2%) | +$105 | -$167 | -$529 | -$1,302 |
| $225 (0%) โ spot | -$103 | -$382 | -$754 | -$1,718 |
| $230 (+2%) | -$293 | -$574 | -$946 | -$1,718 |
| $237 (+5%) | -$545 | -$822 | -$1,180 | -$1,718 |
| $248 (+10%) | -$885 | -$1,139 | -$1,442 | -$1,718 |
| $259 (+15%) | -$1,138 | -$1,356 | -$1,588 | -$1,718 |
| $270 (+20%) | -$1,322 | -$1,500 | -$1,661 | -$1,718 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.