Target Price Playground
ADBE
$225.35
๐ข
ADBE IV: 43.5% โ LOW
(-26.6% vs 30d avg of 59.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $225.35 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $215 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.89 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $250 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,176 (4.9%) on $23,824 risked, vs +$2,465 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $22,535. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $250 by Jun 19
+$1,176
+4.9% on $23,824 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,324
Put floors you at $215
Break-even
$238.24
+5.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.99 / -12.33 / 36.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 (-20%) | -$2,101 | -$2,222 | -$2,325 | -$2,324 |
| $192 (-15%) | -$1,797 | -$1,983 | -$2,193 | -$2,324 |
| $203 (-10%) | -$1,371 | -$1,608 | -$1,913 | -$2,324 |
| $214 (-5%) | -$817 | -$1,082 | -$1,435 | -$2,324 |
| $221 (-2%) | -$426 | -$694 | -$1,049 | -$1,740 |
| $225 (0%) โ spot | -$142 | -$407 | -$752 | -$1,289 |
| $230 (+2%) | +$159 | -$100 | -$427 | -$838 |
| $237 (+5%) | +$641 | +$397 | +$106 | -$162 |
| $250 (+11%) โ target | +$1,687 | +$1,486 | +$1,281 | +$1,176 |
| $259 (+15%) | +$2,460 | +$2,292 | +$2,142 | +$2,091 |
| $270 (+20%) | +$3,460 | +$3,333 | +$3,238 | +$3,218 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.